Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The typical number of everyday homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh official figures. But, public safety analysts have warned that murder figures may not point to better countrywide security.

Notable Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably significant,” the President said, noting that in November the least number of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security analysts warned that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is especially true considering the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for assessing the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it could mask periods when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas concluded.