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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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