Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
