Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
